U.S. equity markets showed minimal concern over the weekend's dramatic events in Venezuela, with major indices closing higher on Monday. Investors appeared to bet that the U.S. military action and the capture of former leader Nicolás Maduro would not escalate into a broader geopolitical conflict.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 343 points, or 0.7%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. Energy stocks led the advance, with Chevron surging more than 7% and Exxon Mobil climbing over 4%, as traders anticipated potential benefits for oil and gas companies from the shift in control of Venezuela, which holds the world's largest proven oil reserves.

This muted reaction aligns with historical trends. Analysis from UBS indicates that, on average, the S&P 500 has been only 0.3% lower one week after major geopolitical shocks and 7.7% higher one year later. "While volatility is expected... the overall market seems relatively unfazed by events so far," noted Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.

Analysts interpreted President Trump's strong rhetoric—including statements about the U.S. running Venezuela—more as a negotiating tactic than a precursor to sustained military involvement. "We interpret it as a colorful metaphor and negotiating tactic intended to maintain pressure... to cede power voluntarily," said Matthew Aks of Evercore ISI.

Instead, the market's attention remains fixed on fundamental drivers: strong corporate earnings growth, the transformative potential of artificial intelligence, and expectations for accommodative monetary policy. UBS strategists reiterated a positive outlook, forecasting nearly 10% earnings growth for global equities in 2026 and 2027.

"While developments in Venezuela may cause volatility, especially in oil markets, we expect the focus of investors to remain on fundamentals," wrote Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities at UBS Financial Services. The firm recommends investors reallocate excess cash or bond holdings into equities, which it rates as "Attractive."